Damn You Charles Handy
- S. A. Gibbs
- Feb 18, 2017
- 2 min read
At times it appears that change for the sake of change is the new modus operandi for survival in a global and digital world. Didn’t you realize that change and volatility are the new normal? Strap on your seatbelt and hold on! And we wonder why so many people are stressed as they grasp for things to hold on to that are more stationary.
Consistent with this theme, I frequently give presentations to economic development and business groups addressing volatility and constant change. As a card-carrying member of the MBA fraternity, I use the Sigmoid Curve as a graphic depiction of our new competitive environment. You know, that little s-curve that supposedly depicts the lifecycle of everything from business and products to marriages. Let’s see, things start slow, then pick up speed, then level off until their ultimate decline. I would also throw more fuel on the fire by arguing that the Sigmoid Curve is becoming more compressed, meaning the time between start and decline is getting shorter. The prognosis, you better build the next and best, even if it cuts into the market of your existing products. Nothing is sacred! Be brave! Grow a Pair!
The transition from an analog to digital world is argued as one of the main culprits behind our rapid economic, social and cultural change. I can’t disagree with this. Where I will take exception is the prediction that this transition will continue unabated. There is little debate that we are on the steep upward slope of digital technology’s Sigmoid Cure. The difference this time is that digital technology has no decline and will continue to grow as computer processing speed, storage and bandwidth allow; only the products and services that are being built on digital platforms will be constantly disrupted. But let me offer another perspective. In his book Revenge of Analog, David Sax offers counterintuitive examples of analog-based products and services and their reemergence. From the rapid growth of vinyl records, independent bookstores and flea markets, there is evidence that the blind embrace of technology and its transformational power is getting some push back. Do these trends represent significant portions of their respective markets, no they don’t. Interestingly, their profitability far surpasses that of digital products and services. I guess the consumer is motivated by more than just convenience and price.
My thesis is that maybe traditional things such as analog products and services offer calm eddies to the volatile churn of a digital world. Maybe we need more than the latest and coolest. Maybe we need things that give our lives purpose and grounding. Maybe the confluence of analog and digital will flatten the sigmoid curve so that we can leverage new opportunities associate with digital innovations while at the same time embracing the very the things that give our lives meaning. As described by Sax, the technology giants in Silicon Valley who are writing in their Moleskin Journals at the coffee shop are giving us an indication of what our future will be made up of.
Comments