Hard Trends & Agency

In his book Flash Foresight, Daniel Burrus draws a distinction between “hard trends” and “soft trends”. Understanding the difference is fundamental to developing foresight about the future and designing business and life strategies to profit by. An example of a “hard trend” is demographics. Unless you have been living under a rock you know that our population is becoming increasingly older as fertility rates decline and baby boomers and the silent generation live longer. The ramifications of this hard trend are open for debate. One consequence is the increasing tax drain on the younger workforce as more of their income is diverted to fund social safety nets such as Social Security and Medicare. Is this a prelude to a war between the generations as the electoral power of millennials has now overtaken the baby boomers? Will the increasing fiscal demands from an aging population have a dampening impact on our economy, as less money is available for the purchase of consumer goods? Only time will tell.

The difficulty in foretelling the future is the unpredictable nature of “soft trends”. For example, we know that many millennials opt for an urban lifestyle. As a consequence, our elected officials and development leaders race to invest in lifestyle assets and unique housing options to draw millennials into their cities. Employers in search of a skilled workforce are now changing their location and investment objectives by selecting urban and near-urban locations. We also know that baby boomers are staying in the workforce longer, a decision that is arguably based in part on the realization that their assets are insufficient to fund a retirement of 20 or more years. Of course, some baby boomers voluntarily stay in the workforce as they reinvent themselves for their second phase in life.

The funny thing about “soft trends” is they are a reflection of human agency. In other words, “soft trends” reflect the actions of individuals, which are based on their values and aspirations. News flash, values and aspirations are subject to change as individuals progress through the various stages of adulthood. As they begin to raise families, will mellennials continue to aspire for an urban lifestyle or will they move to non-urban locations in search for more affordable housing options and living space. Will local leaders in our small towns and suburban communities anticipate this possibility and invest in the necessary amenities to attract a new population? And what about us baby boomers? How will we respond? Will family households become increasingly multigenerational as grandparents help support the raising of grandchildren and the children of our aging population provide more support of their parents? The answers to these questions are not clear because they are a consequence of human agency, not demographic facts. But if you listen to the pontificators and soothsayers, you would think that are future has already been written. Not so fast!

Let “hard trends” define the basic realities going forward. Let “soft trends” become the sandbox of personal agency where you take control of your lives. Through your wise choice of strategic responses to “hard trends”, you are able to better understand soft trends that are opportunities for future personal success.